There are many factors to consider when betting on Serie A and football generally. With so many statistics freely available online, there is no excuse for not conducting thorough research before placing a bet on Serie A.
The Italian topflight is one of the most popular football leagues in the world, with teams including Napoli, AC Milan, Juventus, Lazio, Inter, Roma, Fiorentina, and Atalanta. These are all clubs who regularly compete in the Champions League and participate in some of the biggest derbies in the world. When analysing Serie A betting trends, home vs away performances are one of the key factors and we will look at this in more detail below.
The Importance of Home vs Away Statistics in Serie A
When a team plays a match at home, they are considered to have an advantage. The reason being is they are playing in-front of their own supporters and they play in their own stadium so often; it should represent an advantage. The away team will likely play at a venue, other than their own stadium, once during a Serie A season.
Some clubs play at a venue more than once because they share the same stadium, with Inter & AC Milan plus Lazio & Roma being two examples. There is also the possibility of a team visiting an away stadium more than once in a season because they are drawn to the play there in a cup competition. However, generally speaking, a team will only play in an away venue once during a Serie A season, which theoretically puts them at a disadvantage when compared to the home team. This is often reflected in the betting odds for Serie A games but how does it look in the statistics?
The 2022/23 Serie A Season Anomalies
Napoli won the 2022/23 Serie A title and as such, their home vs away performances do not follow the norm for the league generally.
Their points per game average was 2.37 points for both home and away matches in the 2022/23 Serie A season. Two other teams also had a matching home and away points per game record and they were Lazio, with an average of 1.95 points home and away, and Monza, with an average of 1.37 points home and away. There were also two teams who had a negative point per game on average, in other words, they won more points playing away from home than they did in their own stadium. Those two teams were Torino, who had a -0.47 home points advantage for the season, and Lecce, who had a -0.11 home points advantage for the 2022/23 Serie A campaign. However, these were the exceptions.
2022/23 Serie A Home Advantage
A quick look at the fixtures will show that of the 20 teams in Serie A for the 2022/23 season, 15 of them gained more points playing at home in comparison to their away record. In fact, there were many clubs that performed significantly better when playing at home, including Inter, AC Milan, Juventus, Roma, Fiorentina, Sassuolo, Empoli, Salernitana, Spezia, and Hellas Verona.
Using AC Milan as an example, they enjoyed +2.26 points per game record when playing at home compared to a 1.42 points per game record when playing away. That gives them a home advantage of +0.84 points—so if you were to bet on one of the Rossoneri’s home fixtures in Serie A, the statistics show they are likely to win. The same applies to Inter, Juventus, Empoli, and Salernitana, who all enjoyed a significant advantage when playing at home in the 2022/23 Serie A season.
Other Betting Markets
In addition to betting on the match winner market using home and away performance analysis in Serie A, there other betting options. Home vs away long-term performance statistics can be used for over/under bets, with over/under 2.5 goals being a good example. Team goal scoring is another example of how to use home vs away performances in Serie A and during the 2022/23 season, Juventus scored 68% of their total goals at home, with AC Milan scoring 64% of their total goals when playing at home.
So, there are many ways to analyse home vs away performances in Serie A and use the information when betting. You can test some theories by using betting sites with free bets and see how the statistics can be best used when it comes to betting on Serie A matches.