Matchday 32: Roma-Salernitana Preview

AS Roma host Salernitana
John Solano

Roma return to action on Sunday as they enter the final stretch of their league campaign.

The Giallorossi host bottom of the table Salernitana at the Stadio Olimpico, which is expected to be packed with nearly 65,000 in attendance.

It’ll be the first match since Jose Mourinho’s side saw their two-month long unbeaten run come to an end on Thursday when they lost 2-1 to Bodø/Glimt in the Conference League.

Despite the defeat, it’s not all bad news entering Sunday’s affair for the capital. Roma will welcome back Italian national team duo Nicolo Zaniolo and Leonardo Spinazzola, who’s expected to be called up for the first time this season.

Spinazzola has been cleared to return following his devastating Achilles injury suffered during the Azzurri’s Euro 2020 clash against Belgium.

As for their opponents, Salernitana have refused to waive the white flag despite relegation appearing to be all but certain.

Manager Davide Nicola insisted his side still has time to avoid the drop to Serie B even though they’re nine points from the safety line.

“There are nine games left, we will play every three days so everyone must be ready. I strongly believe in reaching our goal and avoiding relegation,” he said during his pre-match press conference.

Nicola will be forced to deal with several important absences, including former Roma duo Federico Fazio, who’s suspended, and Diego Perotti, who suffered a serious thigh strain two weeks ago.

Kick-off is set for 18.00 CET in Rome on Sunday evening at the Stadio Olimpico.

Probable Formations

(3-4-1-2): Rui Patricio; Kumbulla, Smalling, Ibanez; Maitland-Niles, Oliveira, Cristante, El Shaarawy; Mkhitaryan; Zaniolo, Shomurodov

Bench: Fuzato, Boer, Keramitsis, Viña, Karsdorp, Diawara, Bove, Veretout, Darboe, Perez, Felix, Zalewski, Abraham

(3-5-2): Sepe; Gyomber, Radovanovic, Ranieri; Mazzocchi, Coulibaly, Ederson, Bohinen, Ruggeri; Mikael, Djuric

Bench: Belec, Ruggeri, Dragusin, Zortea, Kastanos, Obi, Ribery, Di Tacchio, Vergani, Kechrida, Verdi

Betting Outlook from Falcona Forecast

Statistical Profile
Forecast Power Rating: 9.4 (6th in Serie A)

NPxG: 1.45 (2nd)

PSxG: 1.03 (6th)

GCA: 2.35 (10th)

SCA: 23.26 (6th)

Possession: 51% (11th)

Conv. Rate: -.09 (16th)

Statistical Profile
Forecast Power Rating: 6.9 (18th in Serie A)

NPxG: 0.8 (20th)

PSxG: 1.80 (18th)

GCA: 1.1 (20th)

SCA: 15.72 (18th)

Possession: 41% (20th)

Conv. Rate: -.17 (18th)

Roma: -364
Draw: +478
Salernitana: +1012

Goals Scored
Over 2.5: -174
Under 2.5: +135


The Angle
After a promising start to the calendar year with a win over Verona and 4 draws in February (including one against Milan), Salernitana are back to losing ways. They rank 18th or worse in every major statistical category. Roma shouldn’t have a problem beating this team, but we don’t see them putting 4 past them again, especially with Lorenzo Pellegrini unavailable due to suspension. Take the under.

Best Bets
Under 3 goals (-120/1.83)

Bonus Play
Verona +1.5 (-120 / 1.83)

The Falcona Forecast